New Hampshire Picks
The political reporters at Trail Blazers make their picks for today's New Hampshire primary. Everyone thinks the polls will prove accurate. They all pick Barack Obama to win the Democratic primary and all but two pick John McCain to win the Republican primary. The two exceptions expect Mitt Romney to eke out a narrow victory.
There is a lot of disagreement about what happens below that. They are all over the board as to guessing how Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul will fare. Fred Thompson is usually picked to finish last.
After my disastrous picks in Iowa, where I went against the polls, I'd be a fool to make that mistake again. Polls weren't destiny in Iowa, or so I thought, because the caucus system there is so arcane. New Hampshire holds a straight, popular vote primary election. If polls proved accurate in Iowa, they should be even more so today. So, it'll be Obama by 10 points over Clinton with Edwards far back. And it'll be McCain by 3 points over Romney, with Huckabee, Giuliani, Paul and Thompson finishing far back, in that order. My only doubt with those picks is over the influence of a tidal wave of independent voters going to Obama. If that happens, McCain might slip below Romney in the Republican primary.
Trail Blazersdoesn't speculate on who might drop out, but I suspect Bill Richardson might be gone tomorrow. Clinton definitely will stick around until at least Super Tuesday, February 5. On the Republican side, the picture will be so muddled that no one will drop out, not even Mitt Romney, whose script for the nomination has gone terribly awry. Look for Fred Thompson to drop out after South Carolina. The others will hang on until Super Tuesday.
1 comment:
So, what do I know about New Hampshire? Or, maybe, what do the pollsters know? Have they ever gotten it so wrong? I heard comparisons to the "Dewey Defeats Truman" prediction and the Alf Landon over FDR prediction in 1936 Democratic landslide. A real upset. A real shocker.
2008 is shaping up to be the most wide open Presidential campaign in a very long time. Both nominations are up for grabs. It's possible that things won't be settled even after Super Tuesday, Feb 5.
Predictions that a loss in New Hampshire would lead Clinton to launch a ferocious negative campaign against Obama can be put away. There's some speculation that it was Clinton showing real emotion, showing heart that was responsible for her comeback. If so, going negative would be exactly the wrong thing to do.
If the campaigning stays positive, and if the race does go deep into the primary season, and if Clinton prevails (a lot of ifs, I know), there may emerge overwhelming pressure for Clinton to pick Obama as a running mate. Until tonight, I gave that zero chance of happening. After tonight, I think it's a real possibility.
As for the Republicans, the picture is more muddied than ever. Four candidates (McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, and even Romney) still have a real chance. Thompson is probably out of it. Ron Paul is, too, but the fact that he can still pull 8 or 9% indicates he could be either a power broker or a spoiler. Keep an eye on him.
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