Tuesday, August 18, 2009

GOP's Shrinking Majority

Hutchison's prescription for renewal in Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchison is touring Texas this week, announcing for about the zillionth time that she is running for governor. But she first has to win the GOP primary against Rick Perry. Her message to Texas Republicans is that unless the Texas GOP dumps Rick Perry and elects her, the future of the GOP in Texas will be a continuation of a decade-long trend of "shrinking majorities." That time span just happens to match Perry's stint as governor. In a speech on Monday, Hutchison said:

"As Republicans, we can continue down the road of shrinking majorities. Or we can inspire, unite, and grow our party. Rebuild it from the bottom up, and reach out to Texans and say, 'If you are for limited government, lower taxes and less spending, we want you in the Republican Party, we welcome you and want you to be active in our cause.' That's how we will win elections, keep the majority and be worthy to lead our great state. And that's what we're going to do if I'm heading the Republican ticket."

My reaction to this was to yawn. It's the same story Republicans have been telling for decades. How is the same-old, same-old going to reverse the "shrinking majorities" Hutchison refers to? William McKenzie, in the The Dallas Morning News Opinion blog, reaches the opposite conclusion. He calls Hutchison's comments "an honest, refreshing admission." What did she say that he found refreshing? Rather, it was what she does *not* say. No talk of God, guns, gays. No bashing of abortion, immigration, environmentalism. No appeal to the social conservatives or the war hawks. Instead, just a narrowing of focus to "limited government, lower taxes and less spending."

We'll see how long Hutchison can keep out of the debate those wedge issues that the social conservatives love. Or if she will be "forceful enough to break from the party's conservative faithful" when the issues inevitably do come up. How the Hutchison campaign plays out in Texas will determine whether the GOP renewal elsewhere is closer than we think or whether Texas continues its trend towards shrinking GOP majorities.

6 comments:

Sherri K said...

I'm an independent and I lean towards the left, but as long as Kay Baily Hutchinson supports using state money for building highways instead of having all of our new infrastructure be privately owned toll roads, and for getting control of the state school board out of religious hands so they teach real science instead that crap they're trying to push now, I'll vote for her. Anything to get Perry out of office. Heck if he wins the Republican primary I'd even vote for Kinky Friedman over him, and I think Friedman would make a horrible governor.

Ed Cognoski said...

Sherri, thanks for the feedback. Fred Meyer, former Texas state GOP chairman, is worried about people like you. He's backing Hutchison in part because he thinks Perry is unelectable.

As for whether Hutchison will take on the far-right SBOE, William McKenzie thinks that will be a key for divining Kay's seriousness in attempting to reverse those declining majorities.

Sherri K said...

I understand that. There's a whole Facebook group dedicated to "Not Having Rick Perry as Governor".

frater jason said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
frater jason said...

(redoing this comment because it might have looked like I was talking about Sherri instead of KBH)

I'm with Sherri on this one. KBH isn't my top pick but she's the most likely to topple Perry. I disagree with many of KBH's positions but I take her seriously; she's not a clown or cartoon.

While on the "not my top pick" jag, I sure would like to see instant runoff voting so people can vote for their first choice without compromise. I imagine both major parties are united in their utter fear of IRV.

Ed Cognoski said...

bloggermouse, regarding IRV, I have to smile. Not only are the political parties opposed, but Americans in general are opposed, or would be if they ever heard of it. It's different! It's too complicated! (which is just another way of saying it's different). It sounds slightly European! If the Electoral College was good enough for Jesus, it's good enough for America, I say. ;-)