Mexico: Failed State or Improving State?
The Dallas Morning News published three essays "warning of grave instability on our southern border." That prompted Keven Ann Willey to ask, on the Opinion blog, whether Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state. The range of opinion was staggering.
The consul general of Mexico in Dallas, not unexpectedly, said the situation in Mexico is getting better, much better. Jim Mitchell points out that Mexico recently produced a $42 billion stimulus plan, not the sort of thing a failed state would do. Mitchell says that Foreign Policy recently listed what it classifies as failed states or at risk states. Mexico wasn't on the list of the top sixty candidates.
Reader "Seattle" says things are getting better in Mexico, with a growing middle class, better roads, new cars, shopping malls, better equipped and more professional police, and a government that is addressing problems. Reader "Ladise" agrees Mexico is not a failing country. "Ladise" attributes the concern to press coverage of border drug violence, which "Ladise" says Mexico is actually doing something about.
Less optimistically, Bill McKenzie says Mexico is not a failed state, but only because it was never much of a state to begin with. Reader "Will" says Mexico is on the verge of collapse. "There's no one left. They're all here." Finally, reader "GKS" says Mexico has been a failed state for decades, again measured by emigration.
Some of this perception of what's going on in Mexico is certainly influenced by American politics. But discounting that, I'm still struck by the sense that we, as Americans, don't really know what's going on in a huge country on our southern border. We know how it influences life in the United States -- drug violence, border tension, illegal immigration -- but we don't really know what's going on throughout Mexico itself. Even the professional journalists voicing their opinion seem to have more uncertainty than they do on many topics.
If you've read this far, you're probably expecting me to offer my opinion. Truth is, I don't know. Mexico could muddle along just fine for another fifty years. Or it could collapse in 2009. Neither would surprise me. What I do know is that the United States has enough on its plate that the US won't be in any position to influence which direction Mexico takes in the near future. It better muddle through, not just for Mexico's sake, but our own.
2 comments:
Rod Dreher thinks Mexico is on th brink of collapse. That means everything is just fine.
I can imagine what Rod Dreher thinks, but I'll save my critique until he publishes something I see.
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