“President Bush may be a bit premature in calling these elections a turning point for Iraq, as he did in a speech yesterday. Iraq will continue to face major problems in securing the nation, respecting the rule of law and establishing a free society. But Mr. Bush is right that Iraqis are doing what it takes to shape their own future. If not yet a turning point, it's certainly a watershed moment worth celebrating.”
As long as the US military is present in Iraq, the ethnic rivalries will play out in the only venue allowed them: the parliamentary elections. Remove the US military and this sprouting of democracy will wither and die. If the US wants democracy to take root and grow in Iraq, we will have to keep significant numbers of troops there for a generation. But, as long as American troops keep dying, as long as the American presence creates more insurgents than it kills, support at home for a US military presence in Iraq will continue to dwindle.
It's unlikely that these elections are a turning point in Iraq's history, a turn towards liberal, Western democratic government. But perhaps the elections will provide an opening, an opening big enough and lasting long enough, for the President to declare victory and draw down American troops. The elections might provide the fig leaf this President needs to extract the US from the debacle it created. Perhaps not cause for celebration, but at least cause for relief.
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