Monday, November 03, 2008

Wick Allison's endorsement; Election predictions

The Nightly Build...

Wick Allison for Obama: Now More Than Ever

In mid_September, Wick Allison, former publish of William F. Buckley's deeply conservative National Review and current editor-in-chief of D Magazine, surprised readers by endorsing Barack Obama for President. Recently, he was asked whether he has had any second thoughts. His questioner, Marty Cortland (yes, the pseudonymous commenter on the Dallas scene) said he's been disappointed in John McCain, but intends to vote for him anyway for "pocketbook reasons."

Wick Allison not only doesn't back down from his Obama endorsement, he is even more forceful in his argument why it is the right decision. His response, published on Frontburner, is so eloquent that I include more of it here than fair use might justify, but I can't find anything to cut.

"Two major events have occurred since I wrote my endorsement: (1) McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin, and (2) the financial collapse.

"On the financial crisis, Obama’s response and his proposed plan underscore my judgment of him as prudent and thoughtful. McCain’s response was that of a jet fighter pilot’s: a quick zig, an immediate zag, and, in this case, a final poof. Temperament is a huge issue in a president, and each candidate’s reactions to the crisis gave an ample demonstration of his. Judgment is not McCain’s strong point, and that is amply demonstrated in the first point, the selection of Palin to be a potential President of the United States. It was cynical -- and disasterous. And it was made in one hour. It will, and should, cost him the election.

"As to your pocketbook, Marty, how’s your portfolio? Eight years of fiscal mismanagement -- and skyrocketing borrowing to pay for it -- are chickens that will come home to roost. How any conservative, or any businessman, could abide that is beyond me. Like you, I fall into the top tier and will pay higher taxes under Obama. I am more than willing to pay them to restore our economy and to restore fiscal sanity to our government. Joe Biden was right. It is a matter of patriotism. We have lost all sense of how the real world operates if we think government can borrow to pay for wars, to pay for increased entitlements, and to pay for its normal operations. Unfortunately, now we’ll need higher deficits to pump the economy. It is a burden that will take years to pay down. Face it: the Democrats have been right, and we -- or those who claimed to represent the conservative philosophy -- have been wrong.

"Marty, gird up your loins. Do the right thing. Vote Obama. Pay the taxes. Help straighten up the mess we Republicans caused."

My respect for Wick Allison is enormous. Allison is an intellectually honest conservative who doesn't let political party trump principle. If the Republican Party has any hope of rising from the ashes of the coming electoral rout, it will be by listening to conservatives like Wick Allison, not by shifting further to the right and lining up behind a Palin 2012 campaign.


Predictions for Election

Popular vote:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 46%
Other: 1%

Electoral vote:
Obama: 338
McCain: 200

House:
Democrats: 260
Republicans: 175

Senate:
Democrats: 59*
Republicans: 41**
* Counting Sanders (I-VT), Lieberman (I-CT)
** Counting Chambliss (R-GA) who might face a run-off

1 comment:

Scout said...

Election prediction scoring...

I was almost spot on in the popular vote guess (and may still do even better after all votes are counted).

I underestimated Obama's electoral vote margin (I failed to predict he'd pick up Indiana and (still undecided) North Carolina.

And I overestimated Democratic pickups in the House and Senate (those razor-thin, still undecided Senate races look like they are breaking the wrong way).